Another round of elections for President of the United States is less than 2 years away. Two years of Trump Administration have been followed by impeachment narrative and serious accusations, while some of his achievements have been left neglected. Despite the big win of Democrats in midterms 2018 and their recently established majority in House of Representatives, odds are that US people might opt for a Republican president in 2020 again. The article seeks to outline why a vote for a Republican serves the best interest of the country.
Why 2020 Elections will be a victory for the Republican President?
-By Ivana Martec
Another round of elections for President of the United States is less than 2 years away. Two years of Trump Administration have been followed by impeachment narrative and serious accusations, while some of his achievements have been left neglected. Despite the big win of Democrats in midterms 2018 and their recently established majority in House of Representatives, odds are that US people might opt for a Republican president in 2020 elections again. The article seeks to outline why a vote for a Republican serves the best interest of the country.
Economic facts speak loudly
The current economy and policies bode well for the incumbent, simple as that. The facts speak very loud: the American economy is certainly not heading for a recession in the time of next presidential elections, and there is a proven linkage between the shape of economic in the year of election and reelection of incumbent President. American voters will certainly acknowledge economic improvement. In the first quarter of this year, the GDP growth was 3.2%. Innovation is surging, the unemployment rate is low to the point of disbelief, stocks are on record levels, while more than 260,000 new jobs are created and hourly wages are higher. Long story short, economic boom! It is of no surprise that Trump’s approval rating is 42.2%. The nexus between economy and presidential approval is in almost self-evident whereas approval is strongly connected to voting behavior. Precisely what counts the most when new elections are approaching: Trump stabilized things on the economic front. Since he took office, GDP growth increased from below 1% to above 4% in 2018, while the unemployment rate fell from almost 5% to 3.5%. Low-income workers are witnessing economic improvement more than anybody else. While only 23% of the people expressed satisfaction with their financial situation in 2010, in 2018 they were above 30%. Asian, Latino and African American unemployment rate also reached record lows. Larry Kudlow, the President’s Chief economic advisor, gave to his boss all the credit for such positive economic figures.
On the other side of the political specter, Democrats are simply leaning far too left for those voters who are positioned on the center and tend to have moderate opinions. Their policies threaten to transform American society unlike anything seen in the US of A before. Despite all efforts to impeach the incumbent President, no collusion and no obstruction is found in Muller’s report. It would be extremely hard to come up with policies that could beat Trump’s accomplishments as much as they keep insisting on the persistence of income inequality and regional disparities.
In 2016, many people voted for Donald Trump because the economy didn’t work for them. Once he proved that he can accomplish what he promised and advance the economic standing of ordinary people, they will vote him again. The rise of populism that put the interest of the nation first above elites who believe in the concept of a global community is evident across the world. How people will vote in less than 18 months will be determined with a simple reasoning: are they better off than they were before Trump?
Speaking of security
When it comes to security and immigration, even though the vast majority of people is reluctant to speak out against open borders in order to avoid being labeled as racists, it is evident that majority does not agree with Democratic stance on this question. During Trump’s two years in the office, the relations with Israel are better than ever, while the preparedness of the American army is better than ever. Moreover, the internal security of the country is on a much higher level due to the rigorous control of illegal immigrants and cutting the number of refugees. These are all favorable factors and in case we have Republican elected again, we are more likely to have a genuinely conservative Supreme Court of Justice after decades.
In his first term, Donald Trump did everything he promised in his campaign: he started building a wall on a border with Mexico, brought home American troops after years of war in Syria, and he established better relations with North Korea by facilitating a historical agreement and meeting between two Koreas. By putting American national interest first, he withdrew from some multilateral treaties, most recently from flawed Arms Trade Treaty and started dismantling some unnecessary international institutions. Many point fingers to his skepticism towards multilateralism, often forgetting that not any international agreement is good by default.
There are also some systemic traits of the US political system that work in favor of Trump getting reelected, the so-called incumbency advantage. After the Second World War, only two US presidents didn’t get elected for the second term: Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush. And both had problems in terms of the economic situation in the country, which is the strongest asset of Donald Trump, no doubt. Thus, he is most likely to win again, provided that he keeps the states he won in 2016.
In fact, predictions that Donald Trump will be elected again and that he has decent chances are not missing from the ongoing debates and elections speculations. The fact that he never stopped campaigning is even more than helpful as he employed the strategy of “permanent campaign”. The part of America that voted for him in 2016 has no reasons not to do so again since he did everything he promised to do. He protected farmers, the American car industry and demonstrated the country’s power on foreign policy field.
Assessing the adversaries
The first term of Donald Trump has been chaotic and unpredictable, burdened with numerous investigations that in the end resulted in no collusion and no indictment. His 2016 win was followed with disbelief and shock, and there are many reasons to believe that in 2020 elections the same will happen. To a great extent, Trump’s win in 2016 occurred due to the weakness of Democratic nominee, Hillary Clinton. Taking a closer look into Democrats candidates this time, we can conclude their strength is not so terrifying and their policy proposals are not so appealing. Sanders and Warren with their inconsistent ideas of free university education make every sensible person doubt their knowledge of economics.
As much as extreme left is eager to see the end of Trumpism, this is highly unlikely to happen.
The Republican National Committee voted unanimously to back up Trump once again. Given that nobody from Grand Old Party announced to be running for the elections yet, but if we leave aside the assumption that Trump might choose not to run for the President again, we are left with the question who might beat him? The Democrats might opt to go with a fresh face or an already known and reliable face.
Even though Democrats line of candidates platform is already too crowded, all of them seem to have notable flaws that Trump might easily defeat: “too old (Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren), too young (Cory Booker, Kamala Harris), too boring (Kirsten Gillibrand, Eric Garcetti), too exciting (Michael Avenatti), too liberal (Sanders, Warren), too moderate (Joe Biden).”The list goes on till number 21. Biden and Sanders are known across the country, while other candidates are known only to the bubble in DC. Warren is known as harshly opposed to Wall Street, banks and the rich, while Harris proposed the abolition of private insurance companies. It is true that the current group of Democrats candidates is the most diverse ever and it is evident that the Democrats are playing on the card of diversity, thus trying to gain votes of minorities, youth, women, even undecided voters. But the more they follow this strategy, the bigger are chances that Republicans will win once again. Moreover, it is notable that a big part of Democrats is not so happy with the leftist shift within the Party itself.
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Why will November 4, 2020 elections, be another win for Republicans?
Transformation of the American economy in the form of democratic socialism that is offered by candidates of the Democratic Party is not likely to attract the majority of voters. In other words, there is no reason to believe that voters will punish the incumbent President if the economy of the country is solid. While Hoover, Bush the Elder, and Carter had an economic recession and weren’t elected for the second term, Trump has very strong economic results. Even though he nearly started a trade war with the European Union and China, the American economy is not suffering any consequences. As reported in March, 71% of Americans said the economy was in good shape and a majority, 51%, approved of Trump’s handling of it. Even people who don’t approve of him, vote for him anyway and this is what can bring him another win in 2020 elections.
Throughout the first two years of his office, Donald Trump showed that he can make tough decisions, he can decide what’s in the best interest of the country. Moreover, incumbency as a proven advantage and good economic results work as the wind at his back and these factors are decisive for elections outcomes.